The other main source of information on oil and energy prices is the International Energy Agency (IEA – not the EIA). The IEA is an intergovernmental organisation founded during the oil crisis of 1973-74 by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).  The IEA acts as energy policy advisor to 28 member countries. New Zealand has been a member since 1974.

 

The IEA report  World Energy Outlook 2008 is notable for analysed decline rates for 798 oilfields in detail, on a field-by-field basis, in order to assess the prospects for global rates of decline for oil production. This is the first time such detailed primary data has been incorporated into its modelling.

 

What they found was this (light blue) “wedge” representing the shortfall in oil production required to meet future growth and offset the decline in oil production.  They call this “oil yet to be developed or found”, including EOR (enhanced oil recovery from existing oil fields).

 

Another way of looking at the problem is to recognise that the “oil yet to be developed or found” either can’t be developed (because it’s too expensive or difficult to obtain) or can’t be found (because actually it doesn’t exist).