Scenarios: Tools for Future PlanningTo assist with future planning, we need to consider the impact of multiple forces of change on each other. Scenarios tell "stories" about how multiple forces of change could shape our future world. For the Towards 2060 project, we developed four scenarios, based on stories of success or failure (using the work of New Zealand's Sustainable Future Institute as a basis). |
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The four scenarios presented here are adapted from the work of the Sustainable Future Institute's Report 6: Four Possible Futures for New Zealand (2009). The Sustainable Futures institute provides an online library of reports from New Zealand's Commission for the Future (1976 - 1992).
Another local example is Landcare Research's Future Scenarios for New Zealand - Urban Edition (2008).
Scenarios were developed as a forward planning tool at Shell Oil. The Shell Global Energy Scenarios to 2050 are their most recent published example. If your are interested in learning more about scenarios the Shell site also has Scenarios: an explorer's guide, and to see how scenarios unfold and change over time, you might compare the current Scenarios to 2050 with previous Shell Global Scenarios.
