Future Oil Price Uncertainty

In 2008 the US Government's Energy Information Authority forecast that oil prices would fall for some years, then increase again to about $75 per barrel by 2030.

In 2009, the forecast is that prices will rise to about $130 per barrel by 2030 - within a range between $50 and $200.

Source: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html

Notes

What about the future?

This graph shows the EIA’s predicted future price of oil in $US to 2030. The top high price path reaches $200 per barrel quite sharply, between now and 2015.

"As the world’s economies recover, world oil prices are assumed to rebound and rise in real terms through 2030. In the IEO2009 reference case, the price of light sweet crude oil in the United States (in real 2007 dollars) rises from $61 per barrel in 2009 to $110 per barrel in 2015 and $130 per barrel in 2030."

This is a significant change from the previous price forecast, released in 2007, which shows the “high” path rising to $US 100 per barrel by 2030. This is now lower than the “reference” path.

Source: US Dept of Energy, Energy Information Authority (May 2009) International Energy Outlook 2009

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/liquid_fuels.html

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/forecasting.html